Comprendre l'évaluation des biotechnologies en Suisse : VAN, risque et données de marché

In February 2025, the Swiss biotech company BioVersys entered the stock market with a value of CHF 213 million. Before that, Alentis Therapeutics raised CHF 163 million. These large numbers are not just about collecting money. They show how experts calculate the value of scientific research, possible risks, and the long road to selling a new drug.

Professionals in Zurich and Geneva use specific methods to decide if a biotech investment is good. Software companies are often valued based on how much money they make now. Biotech companies are different. They often make no money today. Instead, they are valued based on drugs that might help patients in the future. Experts use math to guess the chance of success. Even new investors can learn these basic rules.

Why Biotech is Different from Software

Most businesses are valued for what they own today. Biotech companies are valued for what they might create tomorrow. A software business with CHF 10 million in sales is easy to value. A biotech firm with zero sales but good test results requires a different approach.

The main difference is the type of risk. Software companies can change their product if users do not like it. Biotech companies cannot easily fix a drug if a major test fails. The drug either works, or it does not.

Three things make this hard to calculate. First, it takes 8 to 15 years to make a new drug. Second, we can use history to guess how likely a drug is to succeed. Third, patents protect successful drugs from copycats, which guarantees sales for a set time.

The Foundation: Net Present Value

Experts start with a tool called net present value (NPV). This method figures out what future money is worth today. For a biotech firm, this calculation looks at the money a successful drug will make. It then subtracts the cost to develop the drug. Finally, it adjusts that number to show what it is worth in today’s money.

The calculation uses several key inputs. These include:

• Peak sales: The most money the drug could make in one year.
• Success rates: The chance the drug actually reaches the market.
• Discount rates: This percentage accounts for risk and time.
• Time to market: How many years remain before the drug can be sold.
• Costs: How much money is needed to finish testing.

A biotech company in Phase II testing has about a 29% chance of reaching the next large test phase. Normal businesses assume they will succeed. Biotech valuation must assume the project might fail.

Time is also a big factor. Early-stage projects face discount rates between 12% and 28%. These rates are high because the risk is high. A Phase II company needs 5 to 8 years before it makes money. Every year of waiting lowers the value of that future money.

Risk-Adjusted NPV: Planning for Failure

Standard math assumes everything will go right. Risk-adjusted NPV (rNPV) accepts that most drugs fail. This method multiplies the expected cash by the chance of success. This step lowers the valuation significantly, but it is more honest.

History shows why this adjustment is vital. About 65% of drugs make it from the lab to Phase I. Only 29% make it from Phase II to Phase III. The total chance of a brand new idea reaching the market is only 5% to 6%.

These odds get better as companies pass tests. A company with Phase II safety data has already passed the first big hurdle. This progress increases the company’s value. When Alentis Therapeutics raised money in 2024, the higher value came from their progress in the clinic.

Comparing Similar Deals

When data exists, experts look at similar companies (the comparable transaction method). They look for recent investments in companies at the same stage with similar drugs.

To do this right, you must match the details. You cannot compare a Phase I company to a Phase III company. You must also look at the type of disease. Drugs for rare diseases have fewer patients but can often charge higher prices.

Swiss deals from 2023 to 2025 give us good benchmarks. ImmunOS Therapeutics raised CHF 71 million for cancer treatments. Noema Pharma raised CHF 103 million. These numbers show what investors are willing to pay for companies at these stages.

European data helps too. Series A rounds usually range from USD 50 million to USD 150 million. Series B rounds often sit between USD 100 million and USD 300 million. Swiss rounds usually fit inside these ranges.

Why Growth-Stage Validation Matters

Investing in growth-stage companies is safer than investing in brand new startups. Growth-stage companies have data from human trials. This data reduces the risk.

Big milestones change the value of a company. Some key milestones include:

• Phase I completion: Proves the drug is safe for humans.
• Phase II data: Gives the first proof that the drug actually works.
• Regulatory filing: Suggests an 80% chance of approval based on history.

Partnerships also prove value. If a big pharmaceutical company pays to use a startup’s technology, it shows confidence. For example, Araris Biotech made a deal worth up to USD 1.14 billion. This deal proved their technology had real value.

Investors pay more for growth-stage shares because the risk is lower. The chance of success has gone up, so the higher price is justified.

How to Evaluate Without Being an Expert

You do not need a PhD to spot a bad deal. There are several things any investor can check.

First, look for the method. Companies should explain how they chose their value. If they just “picked a number,” that is a warning sign. They should mention similar companies or a risk model.

Second, check the comparisons. A Phase I company should not claim to be worth as much as a Phase III company.

Third, check the promises. If a company claims it has a 100% chance of success, be careful. Real data shows success is never guaranteed.

Fourth, look at the timeline. A Phase II company cannot reach the market in two years. It usually takes 5 to 8 years. If the plan seems too fast, it might be wrong.

Fifth, check the team. The leaders should have experience making drugs, not just doing research.

Red Flags to Watch For

Simple warning signs can protect your money.

• Bad answers: If the CEO cannot explain how fast they spend money, be careful.
• Too much marketing: If the documents look like ads instead of reports, the science may be weak.
• No focus: Spending money without clear goals is dangerous.
• IP issues: The company must own its patents. If they do not, they cannot sell the drug later.

In Switzerland, you can also look for trusted partners. Support from Innosuisse or a university (as a spin-off) are good signs. If no professional investors are involved, you should ask why.

L'avantage suisse

Swiss companies have special benefits that help their value. Switzerland has ranked first in global innovation for over a decade. Universities like ETH Zurich and EPFL create strong spin-off companies.

Being close to giants like Roche and Novartis also helps. These large companies often buy smaller ones to get new drugs. This potential scenario can be a clear path for investors to make a profit.

Even the rules help. Swissmedic is very efficient at reviewing new drugs. Faster approvals mean the company can start selling sooner (the NPV of the project goes up).

The Swiss AG structure also allows for flexible investing. The minimum capital is low at CHF 100’000, with at least CHF 50’000 paid. This makes it easier for companies to start and grow.

Construire un portefeuille équilibré avec CapiWell

Valuing a biotech company takes a mix of science and finance. You do not need to master every detail to make good choices. The key is to look for realistic probabilities and growth-staged companies that have already passed early safety tests.

CapiWell helps Swiss investors apply these strategies effectively. By offering access to carefully checked growth-stage opportunities in biotech and medtech, CapiWell allows you to back companies with proven clinical data rather than just theories. This platform supports a multi-asset approach, helping you balance higher-risk growth investments with stable alternatives to build a stronger financial future.